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#93664 - 05/08/08 10:01 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: ddread]
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Big Mountain
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Registered: 03/26/01
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Interesting information Ddread!
To further mute Cruyff argument - In both elections 1992 and 1996, Clinton lost the majority of White Votes to Bush & Dole respectively. Even though the numbers did not provide a breakdown of White working class voters. This concludes that Obama is not the only Democrat that had a problem with White voters. All Democratic candidates usually have a problem in obtaining the majority of the White votes.
Clinton won 43% to Bush's 38% in 1992
Clinton won 49% to Dole's 41% in 1996
Even though he won, in both cases Clinton lost the majority of White Votes. This also tells you that the Black vote is the key to any Democrat winning the White House. If Hillary gets the nomination and Black voters get pissed off and stay home,- she has absolutely no chance of winning this election. That's what they should focus on.
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#93669 - 05/08/08 10:59 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: Big Mountain]
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cruyff14
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. . .in your zeal to support your argument you're missing the obvious point-the black vote is certainly not the key to winning the White House. John Kerry got a higher percentage of the black vote-88% than did your hero in 1992-83% or 1996-84%. Kerry lost the white vote by 17 points which is why he lost whereas your hero lost it by 1 in 1992 and by 3 in 1996 which is why he won. Blacks are probably the most inelastic voter demographic group there is. The reason why there's focus on states like Pennsylvania and Ohio is because they are crucial big swing states for Democrats to win to get to 270. Gore and Kerry both won Pennsylvania and still lost the election. Florida is going to be very tough for Obama-the math for him to get to 270 without Pennsylvania is not easy. Your hero won the majority of all white voters in Pennsylvania in 1996. He won the 'non-college graduates'(which is one of the common ways of defining 'blue-collar voters') by 15%. He won those making less than $30,000(which is the other common way of defining 'blue-collar workers') by about 13%. I'm not saying Obama can't win Pennsylvania against McCain-in fact I expect him to win it but IMHO the focus on individual states is important especially if you consider what has happened in the last few elections-he looks strong in some other swing states but he'll have work to do in others.
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Sic Luceat Lux
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#93670 - 05/08/08 11:06 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: ddread]
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cruyff14
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. . .I don't know if you want to compare him with Kerry. Kerry somehow managed to lose an election at the height of anti-war sentiment and with the leftover Democratic rage over the 2000 election.
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Sic Luceat Lux
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#93673 - 05/08/08 11:33 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: cruyff14]
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Big Mountain
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. . .in your zeal to support your argument you're missing the obvious point-the black vote is certainly not the key to winning the White House. John Kerry got a higher percentage of the black vote-88% than did your hero in 1992-83% or 1996-84%. Kerry lost the white vote by 17 points which is why he lost whereas your hero lost it by 1 in 1992 and by 3 in 1996 which is why he won. Blacks are probably the most inelastic voter demographic group there is. The reason why there's focus on states like Pennsylvania and Ohio is because they are crucial big swing states for Democrats to win to get to 270. Gore and Kerry both won Pennsylvania and still lost the election. Florida is going to be very tough for Obama-the math for him to get to 270 without Pennsylvania is not easy. Your hero won the majority of all white voters in Pennsylvania in 1996. He won the 'non-college graduates'(which is one of the common ways of defining 'blue-collar voters') by 15%. He won those making less than $30,000(which is the other common way of defining 'blue-collar workers') by about 13%. I'm not saying Obama can't win Pennsylvania against McCain-in fact I expect him to win it but IMHO the focus on individual states is important especially if you consider what has happened in the last few elections-he looks strong in some other swing states but he'll have work to do in others.
I agree with you for the most part, especially in regards to what Florida and Ohio may pose for Obama. I think Florida is the key and he has to do some hard campaigning in Florida. I wouldn't worry too much about Ohio as he can make that up elswhere. PA will definitely go for Obama!
Where I disagree is the inelastic Black vote comment. History may prove you right but not this time around. Not when there is an African American running for the nomination. Given the circumstances, I am quite surprised that people are still taking the Black vote for granted. I can tell you this, if Clinton somehow steals the nomination it will be chaos in the Democratic Party. I can guarantee that the majority of Blacks will stay home. Clinton and all the pundits will then realize how important the Black vote was and how they took it for granted. Even if she wins her fair share of the White vote she would lose the election with a poor Black voter turnout.
_________________________
"Go tell it on the Mountain!"
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#93674 - 05/08/08 11:36 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: Big Mountain]
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Big Mountain
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This is Clinton's latest race baiting comment!
Clinton touts support from 'white Americans'
Posted: 12:03 PM ET
Clinton campaigned in Washington Thursday.
(CNN) — In what appear to be the New York senator's most blunt comments to date regarding a racial division in the Democratic presidential race, Hillary Clinton suggested Wednesday that "White Americans" are increasingly turning away from Barack Obama’s candidacy.
"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," Clinton said in an interview with USA TODAY.
Clinton cited an Associated Press poll "that found how Senator Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."
"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.
Exit polls from Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina show Clinton won about 60 percent of the white vote in both states. That percentage is down from the Ohio primary on March 4, in which Clinton won upwards of 65 percent of the white vote. Meanwhile, Clinton garnered 63 percent of the white vote in Pennsylvania on April 22.
Speaking with the paper, Clinton rejected the notion her comments were racially divisive in any way.
"These are the people you have to win if you're a Democrat in sufficient numbers to actually win the election," she said. "Everybody knows that."
Obama spokesman Bill Burton called Clinton's statements "not true and frankly disappointing."
So, I guess Black folks are not working, hard working Americans??? WOW! The Superfools, I mean Superdelegates are still holding out with these type of comments?
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"Go tell it on the Mountain!"
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#93687 - 05/08/08 01:33 PM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: Big Mountain]
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cruyff14
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Where I disagree is the inelastic Black vote comment. History may prove you right but not this time around. Not when there is an African American running for the nomination. Given the circumstances, I am quite surprised that people are still taking the Black vote for granted. I can tell you this, if Clinton somehow steals the nomination it will be chaos in the Democratic Party. I can guarantee that the majority of Blacks will stay home. Clinton and all the pundits will then realize how important the Black vote was and how they took it for granted. Even if she wins her fair share of the White vote she would lose the election with a poor Black voter turnout.
. . .Obama is going to be the nominee so that point is moot. But the black vote is easy to take for granted-they turn out around 10% of the electorate and circa 88% for the Democrat in every election regardless of whether the Democrat gets thrashed or actually wins. So if I was a politician I wouldn't be concentrating on the black vote whether I was a Republican or a Democrat. The greatest policy 'triumphs' of your hero's administration were in areas that had a disproportionately adverse effect on blacks yet in the subsequent two elections after he left office, black support for the Dems did not fall but actually raised slightly. So you can really take a lot of liberties without losing black support-which is the reason the Clintons took the calculated risk of injecting race(and racism) into the campaign. I said at the time they did it that it was a good strategy because if they had succeded in stopping him then they would still have time to smooth over relations and get their normal 10% of pop.-90% support in the general, but now that he has reached this far where he is actually within touching distance of being the nominee I agree that if the Clintons were to be the nominees (which they won't be) it would pose them a turnout problem in this election before returning to business as usual in 2012.
_________________________
Sic Luceat Lux
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#93729 - 05/08/08 08:31 PM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: cruyff14]
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G.
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Registered: 07/13/01
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Question
After Huffington recently let off that at a dinner party in LA not long after the 2000 election McCain and wife told her they had NOT voted for Bush because of the stinkup bout his adopted daughter - how come the McCain lightning struck press keeping quiet?
Not even a whisper anywhere on this not even from our in-house left of center republican
Can Obama beat the dual candidacy McCain and the American press?
Well he can use some of the experience gained from upsetting the dual candidates Hill&Bill
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#93752 - 05/09/08 07:57 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: G.]
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Big Mountain
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G: There are lot of things the media will not report. There are so much controversy happening in the Hillary & McCain camp but the media will not report it. Only if it pertains to Obama, then it would make splashing headlines and run for weeks. Right now there are more than 1000 investigative reporters + Clinton surrogates and republican right wings out there trying to dig up stuff on Obama. It's Obama vs. The media, Clinton, McCain and republican right wing.
*The current lawsuit with Clinton vs. Paul never hit the media.
*The Clinton campaign manager derogatory comment about Indiana voters never hit the media.
*John Hagee endorsement of McCain which McCain stated he seeked out and was proud of the endorsement - While this took a back seat to Rev. Wright Bashing.
Hagee's comments to me are worst than Rev. Wright but the media completely ignored it and went after Obama instead. Noticed how these major networks are giving free reign to highly controversial right wing activists like Glen Beck, Oreilly, Hannity & Lou Dobbs to a lesser extent even though he call himself an Independent. Now, where is the balance in this so called unbiased journalism?
_________________________
"Go tell it on the Mountain!"
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#93765 - 05/09/08 10:39 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: Big Mountain]
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ATU
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Registered: 10/27/00
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WASHINGTON - Barack Obama all but erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among national convention superdelegates on Friday and won fresh labor backing as elements of the Democratic Party began coalescing around the Illinois senator for the fall campaign.
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Obama picked up the backing of five superdelegates, including Rep. Donald Payne of New Jersey, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus who had been a Clinton supporter.
In addition, the American Federation of Government Employees announced its support for Obama. The union claims about 600,000 members who work in the federal and Washington, D.C., governments.
Obama, who won a convincing victory in the North Carolina primary and lost Indiana narrowly on Tuesday, has been steadily gaining strength in the days since.
Clinton also gained a superdelegate.
The developments left the former first lady with 271.5 superdelegates, to 268 for Obama. Little more than four months ago, on the eve of the primary season, she held a lead of 169-63.
In addition to Payne, Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon and two members of the Democratic National Committee from California announced they were supporting Obama.
"The election is over, everybody knows that. Obama has won," said Vernon Watkins, one of the two.
So, too, John Gage, president of the AFGE.
"Our people, I think, recognize the enthusiasm and vitality behind Senator Obama's campaign," he said in a statement.
"After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs," said Payne, who in a statement said that Clinton is a good friend and he still holds her in high regard. Clinton's new supporter was Rep. Chris Carney, D-Pa. His congressional district voted overwhelmingly for the former first lady in the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.
Both Obama and Clinton have courted superdelegates in recent days in private meetings at party headquarters not far from the Capitol
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#93793 - 05/09/08 04:14 PM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: ATU]
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G.
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Registered: 07/13/01
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well well well
less than 24 hrs after I took on the media boys an girls for hiding nearly a Week (actually that is a whole decade in politics)in McCain's back pocket after Huffington's 'maverick'-no-vote-4-bush revelation they started coming out today asking him some tame questions
Well of course I can't take all the kudos correspondent BigM did a piece also
Now you know the power of the forum
I hope Obama don't make a fool of the VP slot and believe he can trust Billary with that
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#93847 - 05/10/08 02:26 PM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: Yardman]
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ATU
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WASHINGTON - Barack Obama erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among superdelegates Saturday when he added more endorsements from the group of Democrats who will decide the party's nomination for president.
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Obama added superdelegates from Utah and Ohio, as well as two from the Virgin Islands who had previously backed Clinton. The additions enabled Obama to surpass Clinton's total for the first time in the campaign. He had picked up nine endorsements Friday.
The milestone is important because Clinton would need to win over the superdelegates by a wide margin to claim the nomination. They are a group that Clinton owned before the first caucus, when she was able to cash in on the popularity of the Clinton brand among the party faithful.
Those party insiders, however, have been steadily streaming to Obama since he started posting wins in early voting states.
"I always felt that if anybody establishes himself as the clear leader, the superdelegates would fall in line," said Don Fowler, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
"It is perceived that he is the leader," said Fowler, a superdelegate from South Carolina who supports Clinton. "The trickle is going to become an avalanche."
Superdelegates are the party and elected officials who will automatically attend the Democratic national convention this August in Denver. They can support whomever they choose, regardless of what happens in the primaries.
They are key because neither Obama nor Clinton can win the nomination without them.
Nearly 800 superdelegates will attend the convention. Obama has endorsements from 275, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press. Clinton has 271.5.
Many of the superdelegates who endorsed Obama in the past week said it is time for the party to unite behind him. Obama is coming off a big win in North Carolina's Democratic primary Tuesday. Clinton narrowly won Indiana's primary the same day, but Obama did better than many expected.
Obama has added 20 superdelegates since and Clinton has had a net increase of two.
Kevin Rodriquez of the Virgin Islands said in a statement that he switched from Clinton to Obama because he thinks Obama has brought energy and excitement to the party.
"He has shown he can connect with Democrats, Republicans and independents across this country, whether we live on the mainland or an island," Rodriquez said.
In all, Obama added four superdelegates late Friday and Saturday. Clinton added one in Massachusetts, but lost the two in the Virgin Islands.
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#94079 - 05/14/08 02:58 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: ATU]
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Tman
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Registered: 01/04/01
Posts: 637
Loc: Dubai, UAE
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21st century USA:
From a BBC report:
Neutral figures have begin referring to Obama as the "likely nominee"
But West Virginia provided a good example of one of the hurdles that the Illinois Senator will face should he stop being the party's almost-presumptive nominee and become its actual candidate.
In the coal mining town of Logan, where Senator Clinton made one of her last campaign stops before election day, Democratic voters spoke openly about their reluctance to vote for an African-American.
Several said they might switch their allegiance to the Republican candidate John McCain, if Hillary Clinton didn't prevail in the nominating process.
The exit polls seem to confirm that tendency. Around a fifth of the state's predominantly white Democratic primary voters admitted that the issue of race had played a role in their choice of candidate. This was a higher figure than in almost any other state.
Of course, it's hard to tell how many of those voters really will break with generations-old Democratic traditions and favour Mr McCain in November, but it's safe to assume that some will.
Among them, I would guess, will be 77-year-old Miss Hale, who told me in Yesterdays diner in Logan that she didn't like Obama's "Muslim faith" and Eugene, who casually mentioned - as he was sitting in the barber's chair - that his father didn't want blacks in his house, let alone in the White House."
Sweet dreams to all those Obama dreamers, it will never happen in America.
Sallam from Dubai, UAE
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Assalamu alay kum wa rahmatullahi wa barakatuhu
(Peace, mercy and blessings be upon you)
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#94252 - Yesterday at 07:17 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: Tman]
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ATU
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Neutral figures have begin referring to Obama as the "likely nominee"
The exit polls seem to confirm that tendency. Around a fifth of the state's predominantly white Democratic primary voters admitted that the issue of race had played a role in their choice of candidate. This was a higher figure than in almost any other state.
Among them, I would guess, will be 77-year-old Miss Hale, who told me in Yesterdays diner in Logan that she didn't like Obama's "Muslim faith" and Eugene, who casually mentioned - as he was sitting in the barber's chair - that his father didn't want blacks in his house, let alone in the White House."
Sweet dreams to all those Obama dreamers, it will never happen in America.
Sallam from Dubai, UAE
[/quote]
To be 77-years old & still a racist is a sad state indeed. First of all the state of Virginia is not progressive State they all ( Racist) will die soon. The youths will see the light. Obama's "Muslim faith"hmmmm...Obama is a Christian, either way to be ignorant & think that only christian or muslim or other method of faith is more of a personal matter.All over the world we speak different lamguages, just to say if you don't speak English & not spanish or french is total ignorance.....
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#94256 - Yesterday at 07:57 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: ATU]
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shaggybear
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Registered: 03/27/01
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I always thought that Obama would have the most trouble with McCain, and I stated that in the analysis post I did last year. Though it was cause for concern with me, I have, since, become less impressed by McCain. I do believe that Obama will beat McCain.
McCain does not strike me as the sharpest tool in the shed, and, to me, his campaign has not been overly impressive to this point. Yes, he won the Republican nomination, but it was primarily through attrition as people saw through their options. His age will definitely be a factor, and I think his constant flubbing of fact, his historical problems with lobbyists, the state of the economy and our fatigue with the war will be problematic for him. Plus...age WILL be a factor.
Yeah, there will be some white people who will vote for him just because Obama is black.
Consider this:
Democrats do not typically get a majority of the white vote in the more "conservative" states. If I recall, even Bill Clinton got only 40% of the white vote in those southern/conservative states he won. He often took those states because he had 80-90% of the black vote.
Plus, the electorate has grown significantly under Obama, with most of those swinging his way. He may still have a problem with latins, but I don't the problem is as pronounced as before.
Latins may like McCain's amnesty program, but I don't think it will have so much effect. I think Obama is on equal, and in some respects, better footing than McCain with Latins because my guess is that they do not know McCain well.
They now know Obama a lot better than they know McCain, I believe.
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#94269 - Yesterday at 09:31 AM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: shaggybear]
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shaggybear
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Pres Obama
VP Dodd
SOD Biden
SOS Clinton
SOL Reich
SOI [Some Woman]
AG Edwards
etc.
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#94332 - Yesterday at 05:16 PM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: pelepapa]
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cruyff14
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Registered: 07/23/00
Posts: 5720
Loc: Mandeville
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. . .the Dems don't usually have minorities in the more powerful Cabinet positions which is strange since they should in theory have far more(numerically) qualified possibilities. Richardson would make an excellent Secretary of State.
_________________________
Sic Luceat Lux
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#94335 - Yesterday at 05:50 PM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: cruyff14]
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pelepapa
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. . .the Dems don't usually have minorities in the more powerful Cabinet positions which is strange since they should in theory have far more(numerically) qualified possibilities. Richardson would make an excellent Secretary of State.
Longtime I noticed this strangeness. That's why I talk about them in such sarcastic tone. When it really comes down to it they don't represent all they claim to represent. They are more polarize than the Republicans, probably because their tent is so broad. The only time there is any unity within the democratic party is when everyone stay in their particular place.
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#94341 - Yesterday at 06:51 PM
Re: President " OBAMA" it's possible......"OBAMA--08"
[Re: pelepapa]
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Big Mountain
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Registered: 03/26/01
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Not quite true...Although the Bush Administration (republicans)has selected Blacks in prominent key Cabinet positions re: Powell & Rice, The Clinton Administration (democrats)has hired more Blacks in Cabinet positions than any other Admin. Depends on how you flip it, Quantity vs. Quality
Clinton had a total of 7 Black Cabinet Members serving during periods of his 2 terms:
1. Mike Espy - Sec of Agriculture
2. Ron Brown - Sec of Commerce (Died in a plane crash)
3. Alexis Herman - Sec of Labor
4. Rodney Slater - Sec of Transportation
5. Hazel O'Leary - Sec of Energy
6. Jesse Brown - Sec of Veteran Affairs
7. Togo West - Sec. of Vet Affairs
_________________________
"Go tell it on the Mountain!"
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